NASA Panel Puts Launches for Lunar Landing at 22

NASA has not previously released a firm figure for the number of Starship launches required to fuel a lunar lander, but a new estimate has emerged. On Thursday, a member of the agency's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel suggested the total would be 22. Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, discussed the figure during the panel's quarterly meeting in the context of risks facing the Artemis Program.

The number of flights required to fuel a Starship-based lander in low-Earth orbit has been a moving target. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, then-director of NASA's Human Landing System, told Ars, "We have a general idea, but I'm reluctant to say exactly what that is." She later indicated the figure was in the "high single digits to the low double digits," and other officials have pointed to the high teens. The process would involve a depot Starship and multiple tanker Starships to transfer the required liquid oxygen and methane propellant for a lunar voyage.

There have been longstanding hopes that SpaceX would increase Starship's lift capacity to reduce the number of tanker flights needed. However, some NASA officials now have concerns that such improvements are not happening, or are not happening quickly enough for Starship to play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade.

The figure of 22 launches was mentioned by Charlie Precourt during his remarks on risks associated with the Artemis Program. NASA has previously declined to provide a definitive number for Starship launches, with officials stating they did not know for sure. The agency has guarded this metric closely, and the new estimate represents a significant increase from previous suggestions of a dozen or so flights.

The prospect of 22 launches presents a considerable logistical challenge for the Artemis Program. Such a high number of flights would require a rapid and reliable launch cadence to fuel a lander for a lunar mission. The estimate raises questions about the timeline for returning humans to the Moon, as it suggests a level of effort that some officials may not consider feasible within the decade. The implications of this figure for the program's schedule are a key concern for those involved in planning the missions.