Lebanese Shi'ites increasingly favor state control of weapons

Political dynamics in Lebanon have shifted as recent data suggests a growing willingness among key demographic groups to centralize military power. This development follows a period of intense conflict and significant leadership changes within the region.

A survey conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon reveals that a majority of Lebanese Shi'ites now support transferring Hezbollah's arsenal to the state. The poll interviewed 800 individuals from this community, which has historically served as the primary base for the group. Results show that 66.4% favored handing over the weapons, while 29.6% preferred that the group retain them. This stands in contrast to the group's long-standing position that its independent arsenal is vital for national defense against Israel.

Further analysis by Kataeb.org, a platform associated with the Christian Kataeb Party, highlights a strong preference for state sovereignty. Specifically, 71.1% of respondents indicated that decisions regarding war and peace should rest exclusively with the Lebanese government. Only 5.9% believed Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in shaping the country's future. Trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces was also notable, with 78.5% expressing confidence in the military. Furthermore, 51.1% identified the army as the best institution to guarantee long-term security, compared to just 16.5% who selected Hezbollah.

However, the picture is not entirely uniform. While 67.4% felt Hezbollah failed to meet its goals or only partially succeeded in the war with Israel, a significant portion remains loyal. Approximately 59.5% expressed some level of trust in the group, with 37.1% reporting a great deal of trust. Roi Kais from KAN noted that the group's social support networks and status within the sect continue to sustain its strength, provided no other entity fills the resulting vacuum.

Comparing this data to earlier findings raises questions about consistency. A May 2026 survey cited by researchers at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies showed a starkly different result. In that poll, 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, with only 7.9% supporting the transfer of weapons. The researchers suggested that differences in wording or agenda might explain the gap between the two studies.

Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni argued that Hezbollah's influence is rooted in its social and economic networks as well as the historical marginalization of the Shi'ite community. They noted that intimidation often discourages dissent. To weaken the group, they believe the state needs a stronger army and financial support from Western and Gulf nations to replace the services Hezbollah currently provides.

Local reactions reflect a mix of wariness and ongoing support. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a Hezbollah-linked financial institution, due to fears of Israeli strikes. Despite this, the group has announced aid packages of up to $14,000 for families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere. Whether this discontent translates into political change will depend on the state's ability to provide security and economic opportunity.